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Alagi Yorro Jallow
Fatoumatta: All the signs are here. In war, “when there is much running about, and the soldiers fall into rank, it means that the critical moment has come,” Sun Tzu declares in The Art of War. Less than seven to the Presidential election and Gambians and the global Diaspora are beginning to feel the noise and political vibrations that suggest that the country is on the cusp of a significant political convulsion. It would appear that what we have on December 4 will not be just the commencement of the 2021 groundnut marketing season but also a critical point in the contest for power – and the contestation for “the transmission belt” of the river Gambia.
The 2016 Presidential Election was a turning point in the history of Gambia’s democratic development. That was the first time in our post-colonial history when an election organized under the auspices of a hegemonic party in power was considered freer and fairer than all previous elections. There is a need to be electoral reforms to change the electoral system’s trend far better than last history elections.
However, we must see clearly what is coming. All presidential candidates in all-white and multi-colored traditional apparel “Ganila” boubous and Italian designer suits appear in giant billboards in public places, bearing candidates’ images and tripping both enemies’ and friends’ physical presence on December 4. A storm of gasps from allies and derisive giggles from foes followed the fall.
Should one overlook the first fall’s poetic symbolism in the second slip and even wrap both as a metaphor for what is to come? Moreover, will the weak bones, the loose bolts, and nuts of President Adama Barrow be enough to yank him off his high horse?
Fatoumatta: Edward Luttwak, a strategist and historian, known on grand strategy, geoeconomics, military history, in his 2016 edition of his unusual book, “Coup d’etat: A Practical Handbook,” interrogates the difficulties and risks in seeking the sack of governments anywhere. “The government,” he argues, “will not only be protected by the professional defenses of the state – the armed forces, the police, and the security services -but a whole range of political forces will also support it.” Luttwak adds that in a sophisticated and democratic society, these forces would include “political parties, public and private media, sectional interests, and regional, ethnic, and religious groupings.” For the opposition to succeed in upstaging a sitting government, he posits, it must be prepared to force the political and other forces behind it “into passivity.” Neutralizing those forces that give a tap root to President Barrow’s politics, despite his embarrassing failings, is the task before politically severe party leaders. The reason is to seek a broad coalition of special political forces home and abroad. What exactly was what Former President Yahya Jammeh suffered in 2016, which downed his plane. It is what Adama Barrow’s titanic is being confronted with at this moment. Suppose there is some reluctance in the political sea boiling over. In that case, Adama Barrow’s underbelly is not exactly as soft as Yahya Jammeh’s. However, both wars’ methods and machinery are the same – coalition at home, bombardments from abroad. The incumbents’ reactions are also the same — self-righteous arrogance and an inflated sense of self invincibility. It will take a miracle for the results not to be the same.
Fatoumatta: Why would President Barrow choose to do hurricane rallies countrywide instead of talking to all Gambians in a presidential debate? It is because he needs his huge psychological crowds to intimidate the tangal cheeb political leaders, the lords of ‘taf yengal activists’ and diplomatic community abroad, and Diaspora strugglers into coming back to back him. Why would the opposition meet relying on the Diaspora strugglers and international community without pushing for a Presidential debate on national television? They need the international community’s muscle as body armor against very apparent foul plays from the incumbent. Both know they do not need a debate to get what they want. The National People’s Party( NPP) of President Barrow supporters have started chanting campaign slogans and soundbites in political rallies and social media (Facebook and Whatsapp forums) “Balafa Barrow, Henno Barrow, Kairaba Barrow, Nai Leer Barrow, and Goodluck Barrow” and the granite-minded “tangal cheeb politicians” are all decided where their votes will go on December 4 — if the date stands. The X-factor in the contest is the unseen ace voter abroad, which the ‘taf yengal activists’ hankered after and which Barrow may attempt to scare off them. They both know that the political charity of the Gambia begins in the Diaspora.
Luttwak, in the preface to his coup book earlier cited, said the tragedy of sub-Saharan African countries is their lack of what he called “genuine political community.” Unprepared countries of Africa, he notes, got hasty independence and soon got stuck in the traffic of civil and military dictatorship – and corruption. Although these countries have managed to limp out of the mire of coups and military totalitarianism, they cower and barter away their flag independence for regime endorsement abroad every election cycle. For the Gambian democracy, fierce diaspora contests have been a critical component of elections and electoral wars since 2001. The contests are for endorsement by the real kingmakers sunbathing in Washington and London.
Fatoumatta: We delude ourselves thinking that we choose our leaders. If we count at all, President Barrow will not be too busy to debate and interface with us. If we are the deciding factor, opposition leaders will not walk away from the debate, giving Adama Barrow an excuse. We complained that Gambian politicians (saved PDOIS leadership) refused to endorse a political discussion many years ago. However, power-seekers know where what they seek is – and they go for it. It is not in arguments and debates, not in talking to voters. They know. We all know. It is the reason Adama Barrow has had only maybe one or two live press conferences – only two in a five-year tenure! Our president does not talk to Gambian voters, and he feels good about it only to his supporters. We are cool with the presidential disdain and disgust for widespread communication and the apparent lack of good governance capacity. It is the reason why we cannot be taller than the pygmies we are.
Our political parties seek our votes in the daytime, but they know that the master votes are cast in not in social media. Adama Barrow cultivated grassroots politics and grassroots political mobilization that field he and his political strategist and harvested bountifully from its soil in the political litmus test in Niamina West and Jokadou by-elections. Opposition politicians are busy canvassing for votes. The power-seeking politicians also are savvy enough to note that the lords abroad have never failed in seating their choices in our palace since this democratic journey started 25 years ago. The calabash of power they find difficult to open, they smash into smithereens. Their records here are very impressive.
That was why the global Gambian Diaspora strugglers unleash a blitzkrieg on Yahya Jammeh and his regime, and both caved in. The same reason the Diaspora and taf yengal activists panicked and organized protests and online petitions against the incumbent’s prospect.
The die is cast. President Adama Barrow’s annual vacation at his birthplace in the Upper River Region was busily engaged in an election campaign full of electoral promises and ready on a blank check political strategy in towns, village bantabas, and district political meetings and visiting his development projects in broad daylight and on nocturnal obsession campaign. Adama Barrow is very confident of winning December 4 election.
Losing was an impossibility, Adama Barrow affirmed. While Sosalasso and the ‘tangal cheeb politicians’ move from beaches to the inauguration of Mosques and visiting women gardeners and youth groups, going through political meetings in the massed erection of giant billboards public places and weaponization of social media politics by undermining our evolving democracy. However, the ‘taf yengal civil society groups and activists have also tasked the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) on the imperative of free and fair elections and extend voting rights to Diaspora Gambians this year. The cards could not have been better placed on the table.
Fatoumatta: Moreover, it is not an accident that the Gambia and global Diaspora Gambians’ synced monsoon has engendered an imminent political downpour. There will be a hurricane, and both the broom and the umbrella will be helpless. The prognosis is not benign.